Aug 19th 2012, 18:11:09
As I see it, the intent of Decay Bonus is to mainly help techers (and farmers) be more efficient during the stockpiling phase, and hence more competitive in a field where Commies Indys and Cashers dominate. However, the current decay bonus is not enough to allow techers and farmers to compete with indys and cashers.
Bushel prices jump the moment techers start stockpiling bushels which occurs around day 35. This disproportionally affects techers since the top commies and cashers don't really stock bushels opting instead to invest in military expense bonus and continuous buying military instead. Because of this, techers are the main driver for bushel prices. As a result, techers always lose when stockpiling, since when they are stockpiling bushels, the price climbs and when they want to destock, the price crashes.
From the perspective of the developer, you would say that is why the 2.1% decay bonus was implemented to help techers. Let me demonstrate why this 2.1% is so lacking.
Assuming a top tier Theo Techer is able to reach 33000 acres in the first 27 days. (BTW, I have yet to see it happen, but for the sake of the argument, let's assume it be so). And for the next 30 days, he'll be stockpiling, and let's assume for the next 18 days the average price he can get for his tech is 1700, and the next 12 after that the price is 1200.
33000acres =~11k tpt.
Assuming he sells all he techs in a day.
11000tpt*53turns*$1700*18 days = $17.8 Billion
To be conservative he sells all his bushels on market and only lose 10%,
$17.84* 90%= $16Billion for the 1st 18 days
12 Remaining days with 0 decay and getting the +4 Turn bonus:
11000tpt*57turns* 1200*12 days = $9.0 Billion
Total Amount = $25 Billion
Now assume instead of going for decay bonus, the techer went all +4 turns bonus, and assuming the techers saved the +4 turn bonuses turns all to be used on day 28.
27 Days * 4 turns = 108 Turns
108 turns *11000tpa * $1800 (Assuming the price of tech on day 28 is $100 bucks more than the average of the next 18 days)
= $2.1 Billion
18 days * 57 turns * 11000tpt *$1700 = $19.2 Billion
12 days * 57 Turns * 11000tpt * $1200 = $9.0 Billion
Total = 2.1+19.2+9 = $30.3 Billion
Assume the lost of 20% from destocking,
30.3* 80% = $24.24 Billion.
Ideal Conservative Comparison.
With decay bonus, $25Billion
With just +4 Turn bonus, $24.24Billion.
As you can see, decay bonus barely gives an edge over the simple +4 turn bonus. In practice, +4 turn bonus is probably better than decay since you can do a lot of things with an extra 108 turns other than teching.
What is the max that a techer can achieve?
Assuming 5 million net per $1 Billion and $20 Million net to start out with,
25*5+20 = $145 Million Net. (<-Ideal w/o factoring in other considerations)
In practice, probably $125 Million Net. (<-has yet to be reached)
To remedy this and make techers stronger w/o making farmers weaker, (as you re-call I made the argument that techers are the main driver for bushel prices), I propose that you increase the decay bonus to 2.5%, or 40 days to max decay and also include along the decay bonus a $1 increase in bushel sell price on private market for every -25% decay for a max increase of $4.
The increase of private market sell price can be thought of as, "Because we are keeping our food items fresher, our citizens are willing to pay a slightly higher premium for our groceries" :D
The $4 increase with max military tech gives bushel price floor of $39 or $40(for demo only), which is a nice safety net for farmers w/o being too much. In addition, this may also tempt cashers to stock up bushels, since the floor for destocking bushel is now $39 bucks on the public market since Demo recyclers with a $40 private market price will definitely buy them.
With this one change, not only can you make techers and farmers stronger, but it also does not weaken existing strategies and opens up new ways of doing things.
Thanks & I hope I am not repeating already been expressed idea.
Bushel prices jump the moment techers start stockpiling bushels which occurs around day 35. This disproportionally affects techers since the top commies and cashers don't really stock bushels opting instead to invest in military expense bonus and continuous buying military instead. Because of this, techers are the main driver for bushel prices. As a result, techers always lose when stockpiling, since when they are stockpiling bushels, the price climbs and when they want to destock, the price crashes.
From the perspective of the developer, you would say that is why the 2.1% decay bonus was implemented to help techers. Let me demonstrate why this 2.1% is so lacking.
Assuming a top tier Theo Techer is able to reach 33000 acres in the first 27 days. (BTW, I have yet to see it happen, but for the sake of the argument, let's assume it be so). And for the next 30 days, he'll be stockpiling, and let's assume for the next 18 days the average price he can get for his tech is 1700, and the next 12 after that the price is 1200.
33000acres =~11k tpt.
Assuming he sells all he techs in a day.
11000tpt*53turns*$1700*18 days = $17.8 Billion
To be conservative he sells all his bushels on market and only lose 10%,
$17.84* 90%= $16Billion for the 1st 18 days
12 Remaining days with 0 decay and getting the +4 Turn bonus:
11000tpt*57turns* 1200*12 days = $9.0 Billion
Total Amount = $25 Billion
Now assume instead of going for decay bonus, the techer went all +4 turns bonus, and assuming the techers saved the +4 turn bonuses turns all to be used on day 28.
27 Days * 4 turns = 108 Turns
108 turns *11000tpa * $1800 (Assuming the price of tech on day 28 is $100 bucks more than the average of the next 18 days)
= $2.1 Billion
18 days * 57 turns * 11000tpt *$1700 = $19.2 Billion
12 days * 57 Turns * 11000tpt * $1200 = $9.0 Billion
Total = 2.1+19.2+9 = $30.3 Billion
Assume the lost of 20% from destocking,
30.3* 80% = $24.24 Billion.
Ideal Conservative Comparison.
With decay bonus, $25Billion
With just +4 Turn bonus, $24.24Billion.
As you can see, decay bonus barely gives an edge over the simple +4 turn bonus. In practice, +4 turn bonus is probably better than decay since you can do a lot of things with an extra 108 turns other than teching.
What is the max that a techer can achieve?
Assuming 5 million net per $1 Billion and $20 Million net to start out with,
25*5+20 = $145 Million Net. (<-Ideal w/o factoring in other considerations)
In practice, probably $125 Million Net. (<-has yet to be reached)
To remedy this and make techers stronger w/o making farmers weaker, (as you re-call I made the argument that techers are the main driver for bushel prices), I propose that you increase the decay bonus to 2.5%, or 40 days to max decay and also include along the decay bonus a $1 increase in bushel sell price on private market for every -25% decay for a max increase of $4.
The increase of private market sell price can be thought of as, "Because we are keeping our food items fresher, our citizens are willing to pay a slightly higher premium for our groceries" :D
The $4 increase with max military tech gives bushel price floor of $39 or $40(for demo only), which is a nice safety net for farmers w/o being too much. In addition, this may also tempt cashers to stock up bushels, since the floor for destocking bushel is now $39 bucks on the public market since Demo recyclers with a $40 private market price will definitely buy them.
With this one change, not only can you make techers and farmers stronger, but it also does not weaken existing strategies and opens up new ways of doing things.
Thanks & I hope I am not repeating already been expressed idea.